- Macro Economic Perspectives
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- Archive - Macro Economic Perspectives
- Archive - Interest Rates & Fixed Income Opportunities
Macro Economic Perspectives
- Post-Election Perspectives
- Key Fault Lines in the Global Earthquake Zone
- The Global Credit Cycle
- Brexit Perspectives
- The Fed's Moving Targets
- Are Central Banks Losing Their Mojo?
- A(nother) Window for Reform Opens in China
- The Totally Mad World of Low Rates
- Prospects for the U.S. Economy Over the Long Run
- China's Constructive Devaluation Step
- China Throttles Up Growth, Risks
- Five Over Five
Major Global Themes Expected to Shape Markets Through 2020
- Thoughts on the ECB's QE
- Enrich- or Beggar-Thy Neighbor?
- Europe: Into the Void
- Central Bank FX Reserve Adequacy
FX Reserve Adequacy in the Emerging Markets
- China's Challenging Road Ahead
- China's Stop-and-Go Goes On
- Prudential Fixed Income's Sovereign Ratings Framework
The markets reacted decisively to the Trump presidential election with a risk-on rally and a notable steepening in the Treasury yield curve. As the markets continue to digest the election outcome, we’re taking a look at some of the macro and market implications of a Trump presidency and a Republican controlled Congress.
Arvind Rajan, Managing Director and Head of Global and Macro, Prudential Fixed Income, September 2016
In the past two decades, failures in two major systemic areas of the developed market economies–macroeconomic and policy–have created a third major fault line–political risk. By itself, each area carries the potential to create financial volatility, but they tend to be far more potent when they act together. These three ground faults are the key to our most serious future financial risks.
Michael Collins, Managing Director and Senior Investment Officer, Prudential Fixed Income, July 2016
Michael Collins, describes the unique characteristics of the current credit cycle and explains why many industries and economic sectors are moving through the cycle at different paces."
Perspectives from Prudential Fixed Income, June 2016
The policy responses that follow the Brexit referendum will likely blunt the effect of the risk-off sentiment in the short term, and the longer-term implications of a departure from the EU will depend on the overall effectiveness of the policies.
Jürgen Odenius, PhD, Managing Director, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, March 2016
Jürgen Odenius, provides a series of points highlighting the perception that monetary policy may be losing its effectiveness and some potential steps needed to counter this perception.
Gerwin Bell PhD, Lead Economist Asia Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, February 2016
This brief paper, released prior to the National People's Congress meeting in March 2016, describes China's newfound opportunity to implement reforms and potentially avoid a hard landing.
Robert Tipp, CFA, Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategiest,Head of Global Funds, Prudential Fixed Income, December 2015
We've entered a different world where rates are not just low, but ultra-low—even negative in many cases. In our view, rates will stay ultra-low not only because inflation is low, but also because of the high levels of debt across the world's developed economies, which in turn have depressed growth, and the equilibrium level of rates.
Ellen Gaske, PhD, CFA, Principal and Lead Economist for the G10 Economies, Prudential Fixed Income, December 2015
While very long trends in economic developments can be difficult to predict, we think there are many reasons to be optimistic about future U.S. growth prospects. Given recent technological advancements and the potential for changing demographics, this paper examines, among other factors, the sources of productivity and the challenges of measuring output in the context of advancements in a service-sector, knowledge based economy.
Gerwin Bell PhD, Lead Economist Asia Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, August 2015
The recent devaluation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has triggered considerable volatility in a broad swath of markets and has also left many observers puzzled both about the intentions of Chinese policy makers as well as the general implications for the global economy.
Gerwin Bell PhD, Lead Economist Asia Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, June 2015
A contemporaneous and large-scale de-facto tightening of China's monetary and fiscal policies caused the sudden turn of economic performance since the end of 2014. Belatedly, this triggered a wave of new policy easing measures in mid-May 2015 that has profound implications for future macroeconomic policy and reform. The balance of risk has now turned from an excessive slowdown to a repeat of the 2009-2010 stimulus bonanza-including the volatility that could emerge when the easing is unwound.
Arvind Rajan, Managing Director and Head of Global and Macro, Prudential Fixed Income, June 2015
Most financial forecasts tend to have short term horizons—and with good reason—the idea of a five-year outlook covering major themes likely to drive global markets can appear ambitious. Yet the fact remains that many institutional investors have longer time horizons. This paper covers five major global macroeconomic themes with clear views on how they are likely to drive markets for the next half decade.
Jürgen Odenius, PhD, Managing Director, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, January 2015
The European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement appears largely designed to further weaken the euro. The ECB aims to add €1.1 trillion in assets, and possibly more, thereby returning the balance sheet to its 2012 high. The program could well be extended, should inflation fail to rise towards the de facto 2% target.
Jürgen Odenius, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research and Andy Chen, CFA, CAIA, Analyst, Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, December 2014
Policy makers typically suggest QE is primarily aimed at strengthening domestic demand. The evidence, however, is mixed and instead the impact of QE on exchange rates seems by far more pronounced.
Robert Tipp, CFA, Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategiest,Head of Global Funds, Prudential Fixed Income, October 2014
Over the last 12 months, core European government bond yields tumbled from over 2% to below 1%, while European peripheral yields declined by even more. This brief paper provides some perspective on these watershed shifts in valuation, their probable causes, as well as what's likely to come next.
Jürgen Odenius, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research and Arvind Rajan, Managing Director and International Chief Investment Officer, Prudential Fixed Income, October 2014
Building on an earlier paper, Odenius and Rajan apply key metrics to assess the adequacy of FX reserves across a large and investable universe of emerging markets and devise stress tests to simulate three distinct shocks and their impact on FX reserves.
Gerwin Bell, PhD, Lead Economist Asia Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, September 2014
In this thought paper, the authors explain that China's economic transition represents a monumental challenge as it has become much more difficult for the world's largest exporter to simultaneously maintain rapid growth and financial stability. Based on ongoing analysis, however, they believe that China has the tools to avoid a hard landing and that broadly bearish positioning is not warranted at this time. Still, under a more consumer and domestically oriented economy, the authors indicate it is unlikely that China will match its prior growth rates. They subsequently provide scenarios for China's growth, followed by their views of the financial and real estate sectors, before concluding with the consequent investment implications.
Gerwin Bell, PhD, Lead Economist Asia, Global Macroeconomic Research, July 2014
Over the last few years, observers of Chinese macroeconomic policy makers could draw a parallel to an impatient motorist. Just as the latter speeds up when the first opportunity arises—only to quickly stop at the next red light—so too have Chinese macroeconomic policies oscillated between easing and tightening conditions. The red lights have taken the shape of inflationary pressures, overheated real estate markets, rapid credit growth, and balance sheet concerns. The latest turn in macroeconomic policies, which mostly represent an accumulation of numerous "mini-stimuli" initiatives and buoyant liquidity conditions, again fits the pattern as this easing follows the tightening moves earlier in the year.
Jürgen Odenius, Chief Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research and Gerwin Bell, PhD, Lead Economist Asia, Global Macroeconomic Research, Prudential Fixed Income, February 2014
Our sovereign ratings framework rests on two major pillars—a quantitative assessment of macro fundamentals combined with a qualitative assessment of the institutional framework and policy making. In some instances, our ratings differ from rating agencies. These out-of-consensus views have proven to be meaningful drivers of alpha generation.